A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
